Week 19 and 20 : 1/11/2018-16/11/2018
Time Series Forecasting We had sessions with our mentor Varun Goel from Tatras,Delhi throughout the week and so on different techniques used in forecasting. We covered following topics in these sessions: ● Forecasting – Introduction ● Linear Regression ● Moving Averages ● Exponential Smoothing ● ARMA, ARIMA ● Neural Networks, BRANNs What is forecasting? Forecast: (verb) to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data Things we forecast… – Weather parameters – Sales numbers/ Demand – Agricultural Production – Currency exchange rates, Stock prices, Gold prices, Interest rates – Internet Traffic – Loss due to Epidemics and Natural Disasters and wars Forecasting for a Stationary Time Series A stationary time series has the form: D t = m + e t , where m is a constant and e t is a random variable with mean 0 and var σ 2 Methods: ● Naiv...